Rising cost of crime

It dawned on mom and dad some time ago that the spate of crimes in Malaysia is probably due to one key factor -- the fast rising cost of living in the country.

Many goods in the Malaysian capital, which saw a mind-boggling 40 per cent jump in crime rates in the first three months of this year, appear to have gone up quite substantially in the last one year. Dad noticed that prices started creeping up quite rapidly after the Malaysian government cut state subsidies drastically last year to help cope with the big jump in global oil prices.

The removal of the oil subsidies resulted in an overnight jump in retail pump prices to about RM1.90 from about RM1.60 per litre. Dad believes many businessmen and even traders at pasar malams (night markets) have marked up their price tags, citing higher transportation costs owing to higher petrol prices. Some increases could well be justified. Others simply smacked of profiteering.

Mom noticed tonight that many retail items are now priced higher in Kuala Lumpur than those in more developed Singapore. For instance, she noticed a pendant being priced at RM119 at a shop in the second wing of One Utama shopping centre on the outskirts of KL. She reckons the same item is priced at less than S$35 in Singapore or about RM89 based on the current exchange rate ($S1 = RM2.22). Dad noticed a linen shirt at Island Shop being priced almost the same as that back home in Singapore.

Cost of many items has gone up although the Malaysian currency has strengthened considerably in the last two years since the 7-year-old peg broke in July 2005. The ringgit has strengthened to RM3.40 against the US dollar from RM3.80 per USD -- an appreciation of over 10 per cent.

But the stronger ringgit doesn't seem to have a major impact in capping prices of many goods in the country. Malaysia imports quite a big chunk of intermediate and final goods.

Hence, it won't come as a surprise if more people in the country -- both Malaysians and foreign workers -- find it increasingly difficult to cope with the rising cost of living and resort to criminal activities.

Rising Cost of Living in Malaysia

While cost of living will rise in Singapore due to the impending rise in the Goods and Services Tax to 7 per cent from 5 per cent, the cost of living has already hit the roof in Malaysia.

The main culprit is the big jump in petrol prices, following the Malaysian government's move to cut state subsidies drastically this year to help cope with the big jump in global oil prices. Many businessmen and even traders at pasar malams (night markets) have marked up their price tags, citing higher transportation costs. Some increases could well be justified. Others simply smacked of profiteering.

The Malaysian ringgit is definitely worth a lot less nowadays following the big jump in petrol prices, based on dad's anecdotes from friends and from his casual observation. Petrol pump prices have gone up by a staggering 40 per cent in two years. Consumers have definitely felt the pinch. The official Consumer Price Index increase of 4 per cent is definitely understated.

Instead of removing subsidies overnight, the government should have heeded former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad's advise to allow the currency to appreciate more following its de-pegging. It would have been a less painful option.

Prices will rise further in Malaysia. This is because the Malaysian government is set to introduce its first GST in 2007. Will there be an offset package like in Singapore to help the poor? Malaysia may well announce some form of package to offset the impact of the GST on the poor.

But implementation of government policy in Malaysia is, as usual, another story.

Rising Cost of Living in Singapore

Cost of living will rise in Singapore.

In a surprise announcement on Nov 13, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said the government will raise the Goods and Services Tax to 7 per cent from 5 per cent. The move will be tabled in the next Budget, which will take place on Feb 15 next year.

The conventional arguments:

1. Singapore must resort to indirect taxes as it can't afford to raise direct taxes to meet its own spending needs in the competitive global market for foreign investments and capital.

2. The government will try do more to help the lower income group cope with the increase in the consumption tax that applies to both rich and poor alike.

3. Singapore's GST or Value-Added Tax is still low, even at 7 per cent. Other countries have substantially higher VATs.

Yes, it may be an inevitable move to raise GST worldwide (including nearby places such as Malaysia and Hong Kong) although it is a regressive move -- GST affects the poor more than the rich. But the Singapore experience warrants a closer look:

1. Timing is an issue. The government is planning to jack up GST shortly after voters gave the ruling People's Action Party a clear mandate in the May election. Opposition figures had taken the government to task for not keeping the costs of living down, and pointed out during the campaign period that GST, carpark fees and other things had risen soon after the last election in 2001.

Prime Minister Lee countered it during the campaign period, according to a ST report dated 5 May 2006:

"The opposition is, as usual, rumour-mongering. It is impossible for costs never to go up. But it's also ridiculous for the Government to want to push them up deliberately just to make life difficult for people."

To be fair to the government, it never said outright that GST won't go up after the election. And the government has always maintained that its package of benefits -- such as the Economic Restructuring Shares, rebates for certain services and conservancy charges -- will more than offset the effects of higher GST for the lower income group.

2. The argument that the Singapore government may face constraints in trying to balance its annual expenditure bills based on the current taxation system neglects the fact that Singapore is sitting on massive and generally untapped reserves of more than US$100 billion. There are also myriad indirect taxes already imposed on residents of the island -- such as water conservation tax and the COE system for the purchase of cars. The government can afford to tap the reserves judiciously.

3. Other countries that have higher VATs generally provide plenty of state aid to their citizens. Singapore has given offset packages to help the poor cope with the rising cost of living. But somebody should do an in-depth study on whether such handouts are efficient in helping poor families tide over their cash-flow woes arising from higher GST.

While the debate continues, cost of living will rise in Singapore as all businesses -- even hawkers or kopi tiams that are exempt from the GST net -- will take the opportunity to jack up their prices.